The effect of gun buy-back law reform on homicides and suicides in Australia.

In this paper we use the synthetic control method (SCM) to estimate the causal effects of a national legislative reform accompanied by mandatory gun buy-backs in Australia on both suicide and homicide rates. Using a rich international dataset, we are able to separate not only these two death types, but also to distinguish deaths by firearm and by other means, thereby enabling us to test substitution-of-means hypotheses. Specifically, we apply the SCM to determine whether any reductions in firearm-related death rates where wholly or partly offset by increases in the use of other means (e.g., bladed weapons, poisons) to commit suicides and perpetrate homicides. Our findings show that these gun control policies substantially reduced both homicides and suicides by firearm, but also some evidence of other-means substitution.

Accuracy of self-reported private health insurance coverage.

Studies on health insurance coverage often rely on measures self-reported by respondents, but the accuracy of such measures has not been thoroughly validated. This paper is the first to use linked Australian National Health Survey and administrative population tax data to explore the accuracy of self-reported private health insurance (PHI) coverage in survey data. We find that 11.86% of individuals misreport their PHI coverage status, with 11.57% of true PHI holders reporting that they are uninsured and 12.37% of true non-insured persons self-identifying as insured. Our results show reporting errors are systematically correlated with individual and household characteristics. Our evidence on the determinants of errors is supportive of common reasons for misreporting. We directly investigate biases in the determinants of PHI enrollment using survey data. We find that, as compared to administrative data, survey data depict a quantitatively different picture of PHI enrollment determinants, especially those capturing age, gender, language proficiency, labor force status, disability status, number of children in the household, or household income. We also show that PHI coverage misreporting is subsequently associated with misreporting of reasons for purchasing PHI, type of cover and length of cover.

Interventions for improving clinical outcomes and health-related quality-of-life for people living with skeletal dysplasias: an evidence gap map.

PURPOSE: Skeletal dysplasias are rare genetic disorders that are characterized by abnormal development of bone and cartilage. There are multiple medical and non-medical treatments for specific symptoms of skeletal dysplasias e.g. pain, as well as corrective surgical procedures to improve physical functioning. The aim of this paper was to develop an evidence-gap map of treatment options for skeletal dysplasias, and their impact on patient outcomes. METHODS: We conducted an evidence-gap map to identify the available evidence on the impact of treatment options on people with skeletal dysplasias on clinical outcomes (such as increase in height), and dimensions of health-related quality of life. A structured search strategy was applied to five databases. Two reviewers independently assessed articles for inclusion in two stages: titles and abstracts (stage 1), and full text of studies retained at stage 2. RESULTS: 58 studies fulfilled our inclusion criteria. The included studies covered 12 types of skeletal dysplasia that are non-lethal with severe limb deformities that could result in significant pain and numerous orthopaedic interventions. Most studies reported on the effect of surgical interventions (n = 40, 69%), followed by the effect of treatments on dimensions of health quality-of-life (n = 4, 6.8%) and psychosocial functioning (n = 8, 13.8%). CONCLUSION: Most studies reported on clinical outcomes from surgery for people living with Achondroplasia. Consequently, there are gaps in the literature on the full range of treatment options (including no active treatment), outcomes and the lived experience of people living with other skeletal dysplasias. More research is warranted to examine the impact of treatments on health-related quality-of-life of people living with skeletal dysplasias, including their relatives to enable them to make preference- and valued based decisions about treatment.

Implementation of a risk-stratified, guideline-based clinical pathway of care to improve health outcomes following whiplash injury (Whiplash ImPaCT): a multicentre, randomized, controlled trial.

ABSTRACT: Current pathways of care for whiplash follow a "stepped care model," result in modest treatment outcomes and fail to offer efficient management solutions. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a risk-stratified clinical pathway of care (CPC) compared with usual care (UC) in people with acute whiplash. We conducted a multicentre, 2-arm, parallel, randomised, controlled trial in primary care in Australia. Participants with acute whiplash (n = 216) were stratified for risk of a poor outcome (low vs medium/high risk) and randomised using concealed allocation to either the CPC or UC. In the CPC group, low-risk participants received guideline-based advice and exercise supported by an online resource, and medium-risk/high-risk participants were referred to a whiplash specialist who assessed modifiable risk factors and then determined further care. The UC group received care from their primary healthcare provider who had no knowledge of risk status. Primary outcomes were neck disability index (NDI) and Global Rating of Change (GRC) at 3 months. Analysis blinded to group used intention-to-treat and linear mixed models. There was no difference between the groups for the NDI (mean difference [MD] [95% confidence interval (CI)] -2.34 [-7.44 to 2.76]) or GRC (MD 95% CI 0.08 [-0.55 to 0.70]) at 3 months. Baseline risk category did not modify the effect of treatment. No adverse events were reported. Risk-stratified care for acute whiplash did not improve patient outcomes, and implementation of this CPC in its current form is not recommended.

The impact of posttraumatic stress disorder on upper gastrointestinal investigations in Australian Defence Force veterans: a retrospective review.

Veterans with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) commonly exhibit associated gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms. We compared upper GI endoscopy and abdominal ultrasound rates in veterans with and without PTSD. Veterans with PTSD were 77-81% more likely to undergo these procedures than those without PTSD. PTSD symptomatology influences GI investigation rate and more emphasis on clinician and patient education is recommended regarding stress-related gut symptoms.

Recommendations for a core outcome measurement set for clinical trials in whiplash associated disorders.

ABSTRACT: Inconsistent reporting of outcomes in clinical trials of treatments for whiplash associated disorders (WAD) hinders effective data pooling and conclusions about treatment effectiveness. A multidisciplinary International Steering Committee recently recommended 6 core outcome domains: Physical Functioning, Perceived Recovery, Work and Social Functioning, Psychological Functioning, Quality of Life and Pain. This study aimed to reach consensus and recommend a core outcome set (COS) representing each of the 6 domains. Forty-three patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) were identified for Physical Functioning, 2 for perceived recovery, 37 for psychological functioning, 17 for quality of life, and 2 for pain intensity. They were appraised in 5 systematic reviews following COSMIN methodology. No PROMs of Work and Social Functioning in WAD were identified. No PROMs had undergone evaluation of content validity in patients with WAD, but some had moderate-to-high-quality evidence for sufficient internal structure. Based on these results, the International Steering Committee reached 100% consensus to recommend the following COS: Neck Disability Index or Whiplash Disability Questionnaire (Physical Functioning), the Global Rating of Change Scale (Perceived Recovery), one of the Pictorial Fear of Activity Scale-Cervical, Pain Self-Efficacy Questionnaire, Pain Catastrophizing Scale, Harvard Trauma Questionnaire, or Posttraumatic Diagnostic Scale (Psychological Functioning), EQ-5D-3L or SF-6D (Quality of Life), numeric pain rating scale or visual analogue scale (Pain), and single-item questions pertaining to current work status and percent of usual work (Work and Social Functioning). These recommendations reflect the current status of research of PROMs of the 6 core outcome domains and may be modified as evidence grows.

The impact of weather on time allocation to physical activity and sleep of child-parent dyads.

PURPOSE: Previous studies showed that unfavourable weather conditions discourage physical activity. However, it remains unclear whether unfavourable weather conditions have a differential impact on physical activity in children compared with adults. We aim to explore the differential impact of weather on time allocation to physical activity and sleep by children and their parents. METHOD: We use nationally representative data with time use indicators objectively measured on multiple occasions for >1100 Australian pairs of 12-13-year-old children and their middle-aged parents, coupled with daily meteorological data. We employ an individual fixed effects regression model to estimate the causal impact of weather. RESULTS: We find that unfavourable weather conditions, as measured by cold or hot temperatures or rain, cause children to reduce moderate- and vigorous-intensity physical activity time and increase sedentary time. However, such weather conditions have little impact on children's sleep time or the time allocation of their parents. We also find substantial differential weather impact, especially on children's time allocation, by weekdays/weekends and parental employment status, suggesting that these factors may contribute to explaining the differential weather impact that we observed. Our results additionally provide evidence of adaptation, as temperature appears to have a more pronounced impact on time allocation in colder months and colder regions. CONCLUSION: Our finding of a negative impact of unfavourable weather conditions on the time allocated to physical activity by children indicates a need to design policies to encourage them to be more physically active on days with unfavourable weather conditions and hence improve child health and wellbeing. Evidence of a more pronounced and negative impact on the time allocated to physical activity by children than their parents suggests that extreme weather conditions, including those associated with climate change, could make children vulnerable to reduced physical activity.

Post-traumatic stress disorder is associated with a higher rate of polypectomy independent of an increased frequency of colonoscopy in Australian veterans: a retrospective review.

BACKGROUND: Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with extensive physical comorbidities, including lower gastrointestinal symptoms. Diagnostic uncertainty and poor therapeutic responses may result in more frequent colonoscopies than clinically necessary. Polypectomy is standard practice when polyps are identified, and if PTSD is a risk factor for polyp formation, one would expect a higher rate of polyp detection and removal in veterans with PTSD than those without PTSD. AIM: To determine the association between PTSD and the rate of colonoscopy and polypectomy in Australian veterans. METHODS: Diagnostic and therapeutic colonoscopy rates in Australian male Veterans aged ≥50 years were examined by reviewing case records of veterans who accessed Department of Veterans' Affairs funded health services between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2018. RESULTS: A total of 138 471 veterans was included, of whom 28 018 had a diagnosis of PTSD; 56.4% were aged ≥65 years. Twenty-one percent of the entire cohort underwent at least one colonoscopy during the study period. Increased rates of diagnostic colonoscopy and polypectomy were associated with the presence of PTSD across all age brackets. The effect was empirically large as veterans with PTSD experience colonoscopy rates 76-81% greater than those without PTSD. Similarly, veterans with PTSD experienced polypectomy rates 76-81% greater than veterans without PTSD, and this increase persisted when controlling for the increased number of diagnostic colonoscopies they undergo. CONCLUSION: The presence of PTSD has a marked impact on colonoscopy rates in Australian veterans. The increased polypectomy rate independent of increased colonoscopy rate suggests that PTSD is a risk factor for colonic polyp formation.

Supply-side solutions targeting demand-side characteristics: causal effects of a chronic disease management program on adherence and health outcomes.

We estimate the effects of a chronic disease management program (CDMP) which adapts various supply-side interventions to specific demand-side conditions (disease-staging) for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Using a unique dataset on the entire population of the Emilia-Romagna region of Italy with hospital-diagnosed CKD, we estimate the causal effects of the CDMP on adherence indicators and health outcomes. As CKD is a progressive disease with clearly-defined disease stages and a treatment regimen that can be titrated by disease severity, we calculate dynamic, severity-specific, indicators of adherence as well as several long-term health outcomes. Our empirical work produces statistically significant and sizeable causal effects on many adherence and health outcome indicators across all CKD patients. More interestingly, we show that the CDMP produces larger effects on patients with early-stage CKD, which is at odds with some of the literature on CDMP that advocates intensifying interventions for high-cost (or late-stage) patients. Our results suggest that it may be more efficient to target early-stage patients to slow the deterioration of their health capital. The results contribute to a small, recent literature in health economics that focuses on the marginal effectiveness of CDMPs after controlling either for supply- or demand-side sources of heterogeneity.

Answers in search of questions: what does the comparison of COVID19 data among regions in Northern Italy tell us?

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, discussions about the capabilities of health and social systems to control and contain infectious diseases have been reignited. In Resilient Managed Competition During Pandemics: Lessons from the Italian Experience, Costa-Font, Turatti and Levaggi ask whether or not institutional differences between the managed competition (MC) systems in three of Italy's regions may have affected their performance - and hence, population health outcomes - during the pandemic. Fuchs (2000) previously argued that institutional arrangements not only 'matter', but also sometimes 'matter a great deal' (p. 149, emphasis in original) and this may be particularly true in emergencies.

Impact of pharmacist and physician collaborations in primary care on reducing readmission to hospital: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Readmissions to hospital due to medication-related problems are common and may be preventable. Pharmacists act to optimise use of medicines during care transitions from hospital to community. OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of pharmacist-led interventions, which include communication with a primary care physician (PCP) on reducing hospital readmissions. METHODS: PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, CINAHL and Web of Science were searched for articles published from inception to March 2021 that described interventions involving a pharmacist interacting with a PCP in regards to medication management of patients recently discharged from hospital. The primary outcome was effect on all-cause readmission expressed as Mantel-Haenszel risk ratio (RR) derived from applying a random effects model to pooled data. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted to investigate differences between randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non-RCTs. The GRADE system was applied in rating the quality of evidence and certainty in the estimates of effect. RESULTS: In total, 37 studies were included (16 RCTs and 29 non-RCTs). Compared to control patients, the proportion of intervention patients readmitted at least once was significantly reduced by 13% (RR = 0.87, CI:0.79-0.97, p = 0.01; low to very low certainty of evidence) over follow-up periods of variable duration in all studies combined, and by 22% (RR = 0.78, CI:0.67-0.92; low certainty of evidence) at 30 day follow-up across studies reporting this time point. Analysis of data from RCTs only showed no significant reduction in readmissions (RR = 0.92, CI:0.80-1.06; low certainty of evidence). CONCLUSIONS: The totality of evidence suggests pharmacist-led interventions with PCP communication are effective in reducing readmissions, especially at 30 days follow-up. Future studies need to adopt more rigorous study designs and apply well-defined patient eligibility criteria.

Pregabalin vs placebo to prevent chronic pain after whiplash injury in at-risk individuals: results of a feasibility study for a large randomised controlled trial.

ABSTRACT: There are few effective treatments for acute whiplash-associated disorders (WADs). Early features of central sensitisation predict poor recovery. The effect of pregabalin on central sensitisation might prevent chronic pain after acute whiplash injury. This double blind, placebo-controlled randomised controlled trial examined feasibility and potential effectiveness of pregabalin compared with placebo for people with acute WAD. Twenty-four participants with acute WAD (<48 hours) and at risk of poor recovery (pain ≥5/10) were recruited from hospital emergency departments in Queensland, Australia, and randomly assigned by concealed allocation to either pregabalin (n = 10) or placebo (n = 14). Pregabalin was commenced at 75 mg bd, titrated to 300 mg bd for 4 weeks, and then weaned over 1 week. Participants were assessed at 5 weeks and 3, 6, and 12 months. Feasibility issues included recruitment difficulties and greater attrition in the placebo group. For the primary clinical outcome of neck pain intensity, attrition at 5 weeks was pregabalin: 10% and placebo: 36% and at 12 months was pregabalin: 10% and placebo: 43%. Pregabalin may be more effective than placebo for the primary clinical outcome of neck pain intensity at 3 months (mean difference: -4.0 [95% confidence interval -6.2 to -1.7]) on an 11-point Numerical Rating Scale. Effects were maintained at 6 months but not 12 months. There were no serious adverse events. Minor adverse events were more common in the pregabalin group. A definitive large randomised controlled trial of pregabalin for acute whiplash injury is warranted. Feasibility issues would need to be addressed with modifications to the protocol.

Identification of factors associated with high-cost use of inpatient care in chronic kidney disease: a registry study.

OBJECTIVE: To explore factors behind inpatient admissions by high-cost users (HCUs) in pre-end-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD). DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of CKD.QLD Registry and hospital admissions of the Queensland Government Department of Health recorded between 1 July 2011 and 30 June 2016. SETTING: Queensland public and private hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: 5096 individuals with CKD who consented to the CKD.QLD Registry via 1 of 11 participating sites. MAIN OUTCOMES: Associations of HCU status with patient characteristics, pathways and diagnoses behind hospital admissions at 12 months. RESULTS: Age, advanced CKD, primary renal diagnosis, cardiovascular disease and hypertension were predictors of the high-cost outcome. HCUs were more likely than non-HCUs to be admitted by means of episode change (relative risk: 5.21; 95% CI 5.02 to 5.39), 30-day readmission (2.19; 2.13 to 2.25), scheduled readmission (1.29; 1.11 to 1.46) and emergency (1.07; 1.02 to 1.13), for diagnoses of the nervous (1.94; 1.74 to 2.15), circulatory (1.24; 1.14 to 1.34) and respiratory (1.2; 1.03 to 1.37) systems and other factors influencing health status (1.92; 1.74 to 2.09). CONCLUSIONS: The high relevance of episode change and other factors influencing health status revealed that a substantial part of excess demand for inpatient care was associated with discordant conditions often linked to frailty, decline in psychological health and social vulnerability. This suggests that multidisciplinary models of care that aim to manage discordant comorbidities and address psychosocial determinants of health, such as renal supportive care, may play an important role in reducing inpatient admissions in this population.

A randomised controlled trial of implementation of a guideline-based clinical pathway of care to improve health outcomes following whiplash injury (Whiplash ImPaCT): Statistical analysis plan.

BACKGROUND: Statistical analysis plans describe the processes of data handling and analysis in clinical trials; by doing so they increase the transparency of the analysis and reporting of studies. This paper reports the planned statistical analysis plan for the Whiplash ImPaCT study. For individuals with whiplash injury, Whiplash ImPaCT aims to assess the effectiveness of a guidelines-based clinical pathway of care compared with usual care. METHODS: We report the planned procedures, methods, and reporting for the primary and secondary analyses of the Whiplash ImPaCT study. The primary outcomes are Global Recovery and Neck Disability Index at 3 months post-randomisation. Outcomes will be analysed according to the intention to treat principle using linear mixed models. A cost-utility analysis will be conducted to compute the incremental cost-effectiveness of the intervention to usual care. We describe data handling, our analytical approach, assumptions about missing data, and our planned methods of reporting. DISCUSSION: This paper will provide a detailed description of the planned analyses for the Whiplash ImPaCT trial.

Weather and children's time allocation.

This paper presents the first causal estimates of the effect of weather on children's time allocation. It exploits exogenous variations in local weather observed during the random diary dates of two nationally representative cohorts of Australian children whose time-use diaries were surveyed biennially over 10 years. Unfavorable weather conditions, as represented by cold or hot temperature or rain, cause children to switch activities from outdoors to indoors, mainly by reducing the time allocated to active pursuits and travel and increasing the time allocated to media. Furthermore, the effects of bad weather are more pronounced on weekends and for children with asthma. Our results also provide some evidence of adaptation, as temperature tends to have greater impact not only in winter months but also in colder regions. Our findings are robust to a wide range of sensitivity checks, including controlling for individual fixed effects and using alternative model specifications. Overall, the results suggest that extreme weather conditions may diminish children's health, development and long-term achievements through their effects on children's time allocation.

Reducing Medical Admissions and Presentations Into Hospital through Optimising Medicines (REMAIN HOME): a stepped wedge, cluster randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether integrating pharmacists into general practices reduces the number of unplanned re-admissions of patients recently discharged from hospital. DESIGN, SETTING: Stepped wedge, cluster randomised trial in 14 general practices in southeast Queensland. PARTICIPANTS: Adults discharged from one of seven study hospitals during the seven days preceding recruitment (22 May 2017 - 14 March 2018) and prescribed five or more long term medicines, or having a primary discharge diagnosis of congestive heart failure or exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. INTERVENTION: Comprehensive face-to-face medicine management consultation with an integrated practice pharmacist within seven days of discharge, followed by a consultation with their general practitioner and further pharmacist consultations as needed. MAJOR OUTCOMES: Rates of unplanned, all-cause hospital re-admissions and emergency department (ED) presentations 12 months after hospital discharge; incremental net difference in overall costs. RESULTS: By 12 months, there had been 282 re-admissions among 177 control patients (incidence rate [IR], 1.65 per person-year) and 136 among 129 intervention patients (IR, 1.09 per person-year; fully adjusted IR ratio [IRR], 0.79; 95% CI, 0.52-1.18). ED presentation incidence (fully adjusted IRR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.22-0.94) and combined re-admission and ED presentation incidence (fully adjusted IRR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.48-0.99) were significantly lower for intervention patients. The estimated incremental net cost benefit of the intervention was $5072 per patient, with a benefit-cost ratio of 31:1. CONCLUSION: A collaborative pharmacist-GP model of post-hospital discharge medicines management can reduce the incidence of hospital re-admissions and ED presentations, achieving substantial cost savings to the health system. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12616001627448 (prospective).

Implementation of a novel stratified PAthway of CarE for common musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions in primary care: protocol for a multicentre pragmatic randomised controlled trial (the PACE MSK trial).

INTRODUCTION: Musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions constitute the highest burden of disease globally, with healthcare services often utilised inappropriately and overburdened. The aim of this trial is to evaluate the effectiveness of a novel clinical PAthway of CarE programme (PACE programme), where care is provided based on people's risk of poor outcome. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Multicentre randomised controlled trial. 716 people with MSK conditions (low back pain, neck pain or knee osteoarthritis) will be recruited in primary care. They will be stratified for risk of a poor outcome (low risk/high risk) using the Short Form Örebro Musculoskeletal Pain Screening Questionnaire (SF-ÖMSPQ) then randomised to usual care (n=358) or the PACE programme (n=358). Participants at low risk in the PACE programme will receive up to 3 sessions of guideline based care from their primary healthcare professional (HCP) supported by a custom designed website (mypainhub.com). Those at high risk will be referred to an allied health MSK specialist who will conduct a comprehensive patient-centred assessment then liaise with the primary HCP to determine further care. Primary outcome (SF 12-item PCS) and secondary outcomes (eg, pain self-efficacy, psychological health) will be collected at baseline, 3, 6 and 12 months. Cost-effectiveness will be measured as cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Health economic analysis will include direct and indirect costs. Analyses will be conducted on an intention-to-treat basis. Primary and secondary outcomes will be analysed independently, using generalised linear models. Qualitative and mixed-methods studies embedded within the trial will evaluate patient experience, health professional practice and interprofessional collaboration. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval has been received from the following Human Research Ethics Committees: The University of Sydney (2018/926), The University of Queensland (2019000700/2018/926), University of Melbourne (1954239), Curtin University (HRE2019-0263) and Northern Sydney Local Health District (2019/ETH03632). Dissemination of findings will occur via peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations and social media. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12619000871145.

Who's declining the "free lunch"? New evidence from the uptake of public child dental benefits.

This study provides the first evidence on the determinants of uptake of two recent public dental benefit programs for Australian children and adolescents from disadvantaged families. Using longitudinal data from a nationally representative survey linked to administrative data with accurate information on eligibility and uptake, we find that only a third of all eligible families actually claim their benefits. We provide new and robust evidence consistent with the idea advanced by recent economic literature that cognitive biases and behavioral factors are barriers to uptake. For instance, mothers with worse mental health or riskier lifestyles are much less likely to claim the available benefits for their children. These barriers to uptake are particularly large in magnitude: together, they reduce the uptake rate by up to 10 percentage points (or 36%). We also find some indicative evidence that a lack of information is a barrier to uptake.

Sustainability of Publicly Funded Health Care Systems: What Does Behavioural Economics Offer?

There has been a rapid increase in the use of behavioural economics (BE) as a tool for policy makers to deploy, including in health-related applications. While this development has occurred over the past decade, health care systems have continued to struggle with escalating costs. We consider the potential role of BE for making improvements to health care system performance and the sustainability of publicly funded health care systems, in particular. We argue that the vast majority of applications in this field have been largely focussed on BE and public health, or the prevailing level of risks to health in populations, and with policy proposals to 'nudge' individual behaviour (e.g. in respect of dietary choices). Yet, improvements in population health may have little, if any, impact on the size, cost or efficiency of health care systems. Few applications of BE have focussed on the management, production, delivery or utilisation of health care services per se. The latter is our focus in this paper. We review the contributions on BE and health care and consider the potential for complementing the considerable work on BE and public health with a clear agenda for behavioural health care economics. This agenda should complement the work of conventional microeconomics in the health care sector.